Many factors have been proposed to account for such a compre-
hensive disappearance of the Indus civilization. Floods, caused by earth-
quakes, were suggested as one possible cause. The traces of floods at different
times were noticed by excavators at Mohenjo Daro and Chanhu Daro, both of
which are near the Indus, and at Lothal, near the Sabarmati and Bhogava
rivers in Gujarat. But the proposition that there was ever a flood of such vol-
ume and force as to overwhelm towns in the Punjab, Sindh and Gujarat simultaneously, strains one’s credulity. The evidence put forward in support of the
theory has been painstakingly refuted by H.T. Lambrick. Quite an opposite
theory is that of increasing aridity, urged by Gurdip Singh. On the basis of his
work on pollen samples from some saline lakes of northern Rajasthan, he
claimed that, around 2230 BC, a wet phase was replaced by a diy one with
much lower rainfall, as a result of which the Sarasvati (the name erroneously
given to the Ghaggar-Hakra river) dried up. It is supposed that this caused a
natural disaster of immense magnitude to Indus settlements in the Ghaggar-
Hakra basin, from which the civilization could not recover. In another version
of the same thesis (V.N. Misra), it was not lower rainfall but the desertion of
the Ghaggar by the Yamuna and Sutlej (which were supposedly its earlier tri-
butaries) that led to the drying up of the Ghaggar-Hakra river. (See, on these
suppositions, Prehistory , Note 3.1.) Both versions have been refuted by further
work on the Rajasthan lakes, which has shown either that no distinct wet and
dry phases can be identified (as at Pachpadra and Thob basins), or that con-
ditions of present-day aridity have in fact prevailed right from 4200 bc (such
evidence comes from Lunkaransar basin, which ran completely dry as early as
3500 bc). Even if rainfall became less or the Ghaggar-Hakra ceased to be a
‘mighty river’ at any time, the two events must have long preceded the Indus
civilization, and could have had no role to play in its end.
W.A. Fairservis replaced the argument of a natural disaster by that
of a man-made one: the Indus people so much overcultivated, overgrazed and
deforested the land that, in the end, the land could simply not maintain the
population, especially its urban part. We have seen, however, that the Indus
population could not have been denser than six persons to the square kilome-
tre, and it is hard to imagine how such small numbers could have overused the
soil to exhaustion: people could have simply moved from one spot to another,
as they do in ‘jhum’ cultivation. There is, then, the argument that the cessa-
tion of trade with Mesopotamia after 2000 BC brought about such a decline of
commerce and industry within the Indus basin as to cause the cities to go to
ruin. But, first, it is not clear that the Indus-Mesopotamian trade was on such
a scale as to provide the major outlet for urban crafts in the Indus basin.
Secondly, one can with equal assurance argue that the trade with
Mesopotamia collapsed because of the collapse of the urban economy of the
Indus civilization, and not vice-versa .
By a process of elimination, we are left with a factor, the political
one, with which we should perhaps have started. We have seen (in Chapter
1.4) that the Indus civilization could not have attained its spread or planted its
special features so extensively without an initial conquest by a core-state within the Indus basin. It is also clear (above, 2.7) that the Indus cities could
not have existed without the ability of the Indus state or states to impose a
heavy tribute on the rural communities. If this ability was undermined, either
by internal dissensions within the ruling class or by a shift of relative armed
power (by the spread, for example, of copper weaponry and ox-chariots
among subject rural chiefs and communities), then, the towns could no longer
obtain the tribute on which the rulers, merchants, artisans and other towns-
men ultimately depended for their prosperity. The administrative deteriora-
tion at times, and certainly towards the end, noticed at Mohenjo Daro,
Harappa and Lothal, would be consistent with exactly such a situation.
এই হচ্ছে ইতিহাস লেখার ধরন। প্রতিটি অনুসিদ্ধান্তের পক্ষে ও বিপক্ষে যুক্তিগুলো "নিরপেক্ষতার ভান করে" তুলে ধরা হয়েছে। এটাকে কেউ যদি রিফিউট করতে চান, তাঁকেও এভাবেই "ভান করে" লিখতে হবে। অকারনে স্ট্রং স্টেটমেন্ট দিলেই সেটা এজেন্ডা হয়ে যাবে, ইতিহাস থাকবে না।
আপনি যেটাকে ভান বলছেন, সেটাই আদতে ইতিহাস লেখার ফর্ম্যাল প্রসেস। ওতে এজেন্ডার মুরগি লড়াই করার জায়গা নেই কারন ওই প্রসেস তৈরিই হয়েছে যাতে লোকের এজেন্ডা ফিট করাতে অসুবিধে হয় অথবা এজেন্ডাধর্মী লেখা চট করে ধরে ফেলা যায়। নইলে সুভাষ কাকুরা একাডেমিয়ায় রাজত্ব করতেন।
এর অসুবিধেও আছে। সেটা হচ্ছে সুভাষ কাকুদের একেবারে ছেঁটে ফেলা যায়না। তাদের উদ্ভট বক্তব্যও এই প্রসেস মেনেই খন্ডন করতে হয়। তবুও এটাই টাইম টেস্টেড একাডেমিক পদ্ধতি।
বোধায় কলাবতী মুদ্রার এজেন্ডা আছে বলতেই আপনি ধরে নিলেন কলাবতী মুদ্রার ওপর অকারণে রাগ। এটা হচ্ছে এজেন্ডা থেকে বেরোতে না পারার লক্ষণ। যে আমার পক্ষে নয়, সে আমার বিপক্ষে। যাকগে। গুরুর বইটইয়ের ব্যাপারে জানিনা।